Macro

BOJ Is Slowly Losing Control

2026-05-08

The market still treats Japan like the last source of cheap global liquidity.

That assumption may become dangerous.

For years, the Bank of Japan suppressed yields so aggressively that global carry trades became structurally dependent on Japanese capital remaining cheap forever.

But inflation psychology inside Japan is changing now.

Wages are rising. Imported inflation never fully disappeared. And the BOJ is slowly cornered into normalization.

Most people still think this transition will be smooth.

I doubt it.

The moment Japanese yields become attractive again, global liquidity dynamics may shift faster than investors expect.

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