Markets return from the Memorial Day weekend with a clean slate — and a crowded inbox.
Over the holiday, Trump signaled that Iran talks are approaching an agreement. Brent slipped below $97. Futures pointed higher before the open. The risk-on mood is real. Whether it holds is another question.
Three things will define today's session:
- Consumer Confidence (10:00 am ET) — Economists expect a dip. Michigan's survey already flashed red on sentiment. If the Conference Board confirms it, the "resilient consumer" narrative gets its first real crack.
- AutoZone (AZO) — Pre-market — Est. $36.17 EPS on $4.86B revenue. A year ago: $35.36 and $4.46B. The bar is higher. The macro is messier. Auto parts retail is a canary for consumer stress under elevated energy costs.
- Zscaler (ZS) — After close — The cybersecurity bellwether closes the day. AI infrastructure spending remains intact. The question is guidance, not the beat.
The bond market hasn't forgotten about inflation. 30-year yields are still hovering near 5%. With Warsh in the chair, the Fed minutes showed officials openly discussed rate hikes.
Key Scenarios for the Session:
- Iran deal confirmed: Oil collapses, yields drop, equities rip.
- Talks stall again: Crude spikes back above $100, long-end blows out.
Bottom Line: Don't trade the holiday mood. Trade the data.