Yesterday told two stories at once.
What happened:
- Dell surged 39% after hours. SK Hynix +11%. Hardware infrastructure is the real AI winner.
- Snowflake +30% — but don't read it as a software recovery. It's an Amazon deal worth $6B. Single-stock catalyst, not a sector signal.
- Salesforce blew up. Guided below estimates. Microsoft, Oracle dragged lower. "Agentic AI" is on trial.
- US-Iran tentative ceasefire: 60-day MOU to reopen Hormuz, restart nuclear talks. Trump hasn't signed. Tehran hasn't commented. Oil pulled back — but one headline away from reversing.
- Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6%. PCE slightly softer MoM. Core inflation still sticky. Fed stays hawkish.
What it means: Hardware wins. Software bleeds. The bifurcation inside "AI" is now impossible to ignore — chips and infrastructure get rewarded, enterprise software gets punished for overpromising. Bond market unmoved: 10Y UST holding near 4.52%. Traditional hedges remain broken. Geopolitical optimism is real but fragile — the market has been burned by Iran headline whipsaws three times this week already.
Today's key watch: Dell gap sustainability at open. Salesforce contagion — does it keep dragging Microsoft and Oracle? Any formal Iran-US official statement. PCE follow-through on rate expectations.
Bottom Line: The AI trade has split. Hardware and software are no longer the same bet.