Today delivered a historic wave of optimism across global assets.
What happened:
- Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. Dell surged 33% on AI demand. S&P 500 extended its 9-week win streak.
- Nikkei and Kospi both hit all-time highs. Samsung and SK Hynix crossed the $1T combined market cap milestone.
- US-Iran ceasefire draft sent crude plunging. Brent fell over 9% this week, marking a 13-month record monthly drop.
- Gold broke above $4500/oz despite fading risk premiums, while 10Y UST yields fell to 4.436% on softer inflation fears.
- Japan confirmed a record ¥11.73T currency intervention. US seized $1B in Iranian crypto assets.
What it means: Risk-on sentiment is back with a vengeance as the Middle East conflict premium evaporates. Hardware and semiconductor AI momentum remains unstoppable, but sticky macro data persists—US core PCE hit a 3-year high of 3.3%, keeping central bankers cautious on rate cuts.
Today's key watch: Weekend development of the formal Iran accord. Crypto market liquidity after the US seizure. Monday open for energy stocks.
Bottom Line: The war discount is real, but inflation stickiness prevents a full policy pivot.